Russia doubles its share of India's thermal coal imports to 8.2%

Russia doubled its share of India's thermal coal imports to 8.2% in January-October, Kommersant reported on November 10, citing data from Indian commodities consultancy BigMint.

Russian shipments rose 63% y/y to 10.4mn tonnes, making Russia India's fourth-largest supplier after Indonesia, South Africa and the US. Deliveries peaked at 1.6mn-1.8mn tonnes a month between May and August before falling to 0.9mn tonnes in October.

India has become one of the few growing outlets for Russian coal. Europe has been closed to it since the EU embargo of August 2022, and the industry has struggled for years with long rail hauls to distant ports and thin margins: as far back as 2024 half of Russia's coal miners were unprofitable. Russian coal took business mainly from Indonesian and South African suppliers, according to BigMint.

Indonesian thermal coal shipments to India fell 14% to 71.4mn tonnes in the ten months and Indonesia's share slipped from about 60.2% to 56.5%. Supplies from South Africa dropped 12% to 24.3mn tonnes, while US exports rose 11% to 12.3mn tonnes.

India's thermal coal imports by supplier, January-October 2026, mn tonnes. Source: BigMint via Kommersant. IntelliNews

India's overall thermal coal purchases are shrinking. Imports rose 34% m/m and 19% y/y in October to 14.5mn tonnes, the highest monthly figure of 2026, but for the ten months they were down 8.5% y/y at 126.3mn tonnes. Russia has been growing its slice of a smaller market.

India and China are Russia's main coal customers. The Centre for Price Indices in Moscow puts India's share of Russia's visible thermal coal exports at 14%-15% and expects it to hold at that level this year. Alexander Kotov, consulting partner at NEFT Research, thinks India's share could rise to 15%-20% in 2026 and that, at the current pace, total Russian thermal coal exports could grow by 15%-17% to 185mn-190mn tonnes.

South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and, to the west, Egypt are the other growth markets, Kotov said. Turkey, the main buyer of coal shipped through Russia's southern ports, is harder to reach: Ukrainian strikes have crippled the ports of the Azov-Black Sea basin, closing the Taman terminal and diverting coal to the Baltic, where handling fees jumped 65% in October.

The run may have peaked for this year. Russian exporters have already sold most of their 2026 thermal coal and the volumes free for loading in November and December are very limited, according to a review by Chinese consultancy SXcoal, which said mining and logistics costs remain high and heating demand ahead of winter is cutting into export potential.