Nigeria’s Dangote refinery $1.6bn IPO attracts $4.78bn in orders, sources say

Nigeria’s Dangote Petroleum Refinery attracted about NGN6.4 trillion ($4.78bn) in domestic orders for its $1.6bn initial public offering (IPO), nearly three times the base offer, according to sources cited by Reuters. The company has not confirmed the order book.

The offer, which closed on October 27, comprised 4.1bn new shares priced at NGN525 each, giving a base value of NGN2.1525 trillion. Minimum subscriptions were 10 shares, costing NGN5,250, under an offer marketed as “The People’s IPO”.

No official interim subscription figures were published before the close. When the subscription period was extended from October 13, Aliko Dangote said orders already exceeded the amount on offer by three to four times, Bloomberg reported, while Proshare Research said on October 16 that the extension could indicate weak demand or the need for more time to accommodate cross-border subscriptions.

See IntelliNews: Nigeria’s $1.6bn Dangote refinery IPO could expand active investor base three- to fivefold, exchange chief says

More than 2mn investors subscribed through digital channels, one of the sources told Reuters, adding that the order book did not yet include applications from other African countries. Dangote said in a statement on October 28 that it had received applications from 120 countries, including all 54 African nations. Its official IPO portal says applications are being checked, and final allotments remain pending.

East African investors were offered access through a Kenyan global depositary receipt (GDR) programme of about 729mn receipts at KES53.50 each, worth up to KES39bn ($300mn), or almost 19% of the IPO by value if fully subscribed.

See IntelliNews: East African investors offered $300mn slice of Nigeria’s Dangote refinery IPO

The prospectus permits the company to absorb subscriptions of up to 30% above the base offer, subject to Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approval. This would raise gross proceeds to NGN2.798 trillion, or as much as $2.1bn. One of the sources told Reuters that Dangote was expected to exercise the option, although the company has not confirmed whether it will do so. Excess application money must be refunded.

The IPO implies a market capitalisation of approximately NGN65.22 trillion after the base offer, compared with NGN63.07 trillion beforehand, or about $48.7bn at the exchange rate implied by the Reuters order-book figures. The new shares represent about 3.3% of the enlarged share capital.

Analysts’ valuations differ. GTI Research put fair value at NGN493 per share, about 6% below the offer price, while Renaissance Capital Africa, which is involved in arranging the East African GDR offer, valued the shares at NGN608–697.

A $2.5bn private placement, sold in stages from June and completed in July, was 3.7 times oversubscribed. The placement covered about 6% of the company and was reported to value the refinery at roughly $40bn; Dangote did not disclose the valuation.

See IntelliNews: Nigeria’s Dangote refinery completes $2.5bn private placement after strong investor demand

Estimated net IPO proceeds of NGN2.111 trillion would cover roughly 11% of a $14.3bn refinery expansion programme. Dangote plans to double refining capacity from approximately 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.4mn bpd by 2029, subject to financing and construction.

The refinery, which cost about $20bn to build and began commercial operations in early 2024, originally had a nameplate capacity of 650,000 bpd. The prospectus showed an after-tax profit of $1.82bn in the first half of 2026, against a $476mn loss for the whole of 2025. Dangote expects to finance the remaining expansion costs through internally generated cash flow and additional financing, including debt, trade and project-finance arrangements.

See IntelliNews: Nigeria’s Dangote targets 1.4mn bpd by 2029 as $14.3bn expansion, IPO advance

Under the revised indicative timetable, registrars are due to collate applications by November 3 and submit the proposed basis of allotment on November 10. SEC clearance is targeted for November 17, with listing on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) expected in late November or early December, subject to regulatory approval.

See IntelliNews: Nigeria’s Dangote refinery boosts petrol exports 59% as domestic deliveries fall in September