Mexico's Pemex proven reserves down 40% since 2014

Mexican state oil firm Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) reported that proven oil and gas reserves sat at around 7.47bn barrels of crude oil as of December 31, 2025, marking a dramatic 40% decrease from 2014, when the state-owned company began disclosing figures that excluded fields ceded to the federal government under round zero of that year’s energy reform, El Economista reported. 

The figures, submitted to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to comply with listing requirements on the US debt market, show Pemex increased its so-called 1P reserves - those with a 90% probability of commercial extraction - by 0.28% year-on-year, up from 7,450mn barrels of crude oil equivalent (boe) at the end of 2024.

Mexico's energy ministry no longer publishes national reserve data, a task previously carried out by the now-defunct national hydrocarbons commission (CNH) using information from Pemex and private operators. Pemex, however, remains obliged to report the indicator to the SEC to maintain access to US debt markets.

The reduction in hydrocarbon reserves reflects the natural depletion of non-renewable deposits, which require sustained investment to replace through the discovery of new oil and gas reservoirs. Such exploration has become costlier as remaining prospects lie at greater depths, according to the data.

Compared with 2023, Pemex's reserves fell by 0.12%, though they rose by 6.5% relative to 2018 the first year of the Morena party's rule. Reserves have grown by an average of 0.9% annually during the period the party has governed the country.

The current volume remains 46% below the 13.81bn boe recorded in 2012, the first year of Enrique Peña Nieto's presidency, when Pemex held exclusive rights to develop the country's hydrocarbon resources.

The last year in which the government reported Pemex's reserves as equivalent to national reserves was 2013, when proven reserves stood at 13,868mn barrels of crude oil equivalent. The following year, a gap of 1,058mn boe emerged between national and Pemex-only figures, as the broader national tally began including fields designated for third-party tenders. While Pemex's reserves fell by 11% that year, the national total - which by then incorporated fields open to external operators - declined by 3.1%.

Between 2014 and 2024, the period during which the CNH published national proven reserves separately from Pemex's SEC filings, the company's share of the country's total 1P reserves averaged 88%. That share dropped to a low of 74% in 2015 and peaked at 93% in 2021 and 2022.

In the most recent year for which comparable national data exists, Pemex accounted for 88.9% of Mexico's total proven reserves.

Pemex's 2025 reserve replacement rate reached 102.6%, meaning that for every barrel extracted or reclassified from another category, 1.026 barrels were added through exploration. The rate marks an improvement on 2024, when it stood at just 96.6%, indicating that exploration activity fell short of offsetting extraction and reclassification that year.

Reserve accounting in other countries, and in Mexico prior to the energy reform enacted under current president Claudia Sheinbaum, also included probable and possible reserves.

Probable reserves, combined with proven reserves, form the 2P category and carry a 50% probability of commercial success, while possible reserves - or 3P - carry a 10% probability, according to standard industry classifications.