Latest first Atlantic hurricane in 121 years bears down on US Gulf coast

Isaias has become 2026's first Atlantic hurricane, the latest first hurricane in 121 years, and is heading for the US Gulf coast, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said on October 8.

The NHC upgraded Isaias at 03:30 GMT on October 8, late on October 7 local time, after Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters measured hurricane-force winds in the storm. By the NHC's 04:00 CDT advisory, Isaias was packing maximum sustained winds of 130 km/h, with a central pressure of 979 millibars, about 270 km northwest of Progreso in Mexico and 680 km south-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River. It was moving east-northeast at 15 km/h and strengthening.

The season's first hurricane has formed later only once in the records, in 1905, when it appeared on October 8, according to NOAA data cited by CBS News. In the satellite era the previous latest was Hurricane Gustav on September 11, 2002, a mark this season passed on September 12. Eight named storms in a row had failed to reach hurricane strength before Isaias, which ties 2011 for the furthest down the alphabet before a first hurricane, Florida broadcaster WKMG noted. Isaias arrived nearly a month after the season's climatological peak, weather site Ventusky said.

The quiet season is largely the work of the strong El Nino that set in over the summer, which drives up wind shear over the Atlantic and tears developing storms apart. The super El Nino has pushed global sea temperatures to record highs, but in the Atlantic the shear has won out: accumulated cyclone energy, a measure of a season's combined storm strength, stood at just 9.9 units by September 28, a modern record low, the Florida Public Radio Emergency Network reported via WGCU. The eastern Pacific has been busy instead, producing Hurricane Polo, the second most intense storm on record in that basin.

Under the NHC's forecast, Isaias will peak at about 175 km/h by early on October 9, just short of major hurricane status, over waters near 30C, before rising wind shear weakens it slightly ahead of landfall late on October 9 or early on October 10. It should remain "a dangerous hurricane through landfall," the centre said.

A hurricane warning runs from Ocean Springs in Mississippi to the Bay/Gulf County line in the Florida Panhandle. The NHC warned of a storm surge of 1.5-2.1 metres between Ocean Springs and Indian Pass, Florida, including Mobile Bay, and of 7-18 centimetres of rain across the central Gulf coast, locally up to 25 centimetres, with long power cuts likely.

Alabama Governor Kay Ivey declared a state of emergency for 40 counties and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis for 25 counties in the Panhandle and Big Bend, while Okaloosa County in Florida ordered mandatory evacuations of some coastal areas, AP reported.

Offshore producers have already shut in about a quarter of Gulf oil output, some 511,000 barrels a day, and evacuated eight of the region's 371 manned platforms, the agency added. The Gulf accounts for almost 15% of US crude production, and companies there had already pulled staff from platforms in July ahead of Tropical Storm Bertha.

Isaias is set to pass north of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on October 8, bringing gusty winds and up to 7.5 centimetres of rain to western Yucatan and Campeche, before turning north towards the US coast. After landfall it is forecast to weaken quickly over Alabama and Mississippi and bring heavy rain to the US Southeast, in what has become the latest chapter of the 2026 disaster season.