Gulf of Guinea oil regains strategic appeal as global energy shocks mount – Carnegie

The Gulf of Guinea is regaining strategic importance as an alternative source of oil and gas for Western markets, with geopolitical turmoil, offshore discoveries and regulatory reforms reviving investor interest in West Africa, according to an analysis published by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

“West African energy production is suddenly strategic again,” Judd Devermont, a Carnegie nonresident scholar, and Gabrielle Posner of Fraym wrote in a November 5 analysis. They urged renewed US engagement with African producers amid disruptions linked to the US-Israel war with Iran and threats to Middle Eastern shipping routes.

The researchers recalled that the US National Intelligence Council projected in 2000 that West Africa could supply 25% of North American oil imports by 2015. Instead, West African crude and petroleum products accounted for less than 3% of US imports that year, as American shale production expanded and African investment faced regulatory and security obstacles.

The latest disruptions have revived the argument for diversifying energy supplies. International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol has described the war as “the greatest energy security threat in history”. Carnegie estimates that the Gulf of Guinea, defined broadly to encompass much of Africa’s Atlantic coast, holds 4.5% of global oil reserves and 2.7% of gas reserves. Its location offers access to European and American markets without requiring shipments to transit Middle Eastern maritime chokepoints.

Offshore investment gathers pace

Much of the region’s crude is light and sweet, making it attractive to refiners, the researchers noted. Advances in seismic imaging and deepwater drilling have also opened previously difficult exploration areas, while licensing rounds are attracting interest in Benin, Cameroon, Gabon, Liberia, Nigeria, Sierra Leone and other coastal states.

Devermont and Posner argued that the investment environment had improved since Washington last identified the region as a strategic energy frontier. Regulatory reforms and maritime security initiatives had contributed to what they described as “a more welcoming, and potentially more durable, operating environment”.

Nigeria’s 2021 Petroleum Industry Act established a new regulatory framework and commercialised the state oil company, while subsequent presidential directives introduced incentives for offshore investment. Shell (LSE:SHEL) took the final investment decision on the Bonga North deepwater development in December 2024. The project, which press reports valued at about $5bn, is expected to recover more than 300mn barrels of oil equivalent and reach peak output of 110,000 barrels per day (bpd).

“This is another significant investment, which will help us to maintain stable liquids production from our advantaged Upstream portfolio,” Shell’s then Integrated Gas and Upstream Director Zoë Yujnovich said when the project was sanctioned.

ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) and its partners committed $1bn in July 2026 to the Usan offshore infill drilling project, which is expected to add up to 40,000 bpd of production. Jagir Baxi, chairman and managing director of ExxonMobil’s Nigerian affiliates, announced the investment at NOG Energy Week in Abuja on July 8, saying work on the block would begin the following month. The campaign will be Esso’s first drilling in Nigeria since 2016.

In April, Baxi had said: “We are closing in on the point where we will declare it formally investment-ready.”

The offshore investment drive contrasts with international majors’ withdrawal from mature onshore and shallow-water assets. Shell completed the sale of its Nigerian onshore and shallow-water subsidiary to the Renaissance consortium in March 2025, while Seplat Energy (NGX:SEPLAT, LSE:SEPL) acquired ExxonMobil’s shallow-water operations in December 2024. Nigerian companies now account for more than half of national oil production, while international majors increasingly concentrate investment in deepwater projects and gas.

See IntelliNews: Nigeria targets October launch for 2026 oil, gas licensing round as output drive accelerates.

Angola and other Atlantic producers court investors

Angola has pursued comparable reforms, transferring petroleum-sector regulatory responsibilities from state-owned Sonangol to the newly created National Agency for Petroleum, Gas and Biofuels (ANPG) in 2019 and introducing more predictable licensing rounds. Chevron (NYSE:CVX) announced an offshore oil and gas condensate discovery in Block 0 in August 2026 that remains subject to development assessment.

The investment drive advanced in September when the ANPG signed binding deepwater exploration contracts with groups including Shell, Equinor (OSE:EQNR) and Sonangol, alongside Chevron-led exploration agreements. Other arrangements involving TotalEnergies (EPA:TTE), ExxonMobil and QatarEnergy were at different contractual stages, including preliminary heads of terms.

“Capital in this segment has become more selective,” ANPG executive director Artur Custódio said at the September 9 Angola Oil & Gas conference in Luanda, stressing the importance of fiscal predictability and contractual stability. The regulator expects more than $70bn in sector investment over five years, although much of it remains prospective rather than committed expenditure.

See IntelliNews: Angola projects more than $70bn oil and gas investment as majors sign deepwater deals.

Mauritania has strengthened its investment framework following the 2015 discovery of the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim gas field, shared with Senegal. Elsewhere along Africa’s Atlantic coast, Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire and, farther south, Namibia have attracted exploration interest through major offshore discoveries, although projects remain at different development stages.

African governments are also seeking greater domestic benefits from international investment. Ghanaian Energy and Green Transition Minister John Abdulai Jinapor told Africa Oil Week 2026 in Accra that the future of the country’s petroleum sector should be measured by the economic value created beyond crude production, not only by output or revenues.

Security and governance risks persist

Maritime security cooperation has expanded alongside these investments. Six countries — Côte d’Ivoire, The Gambia, Ghana, Liberia, Nigeria and Sierra Leone — launched a Combined Maritime Task Force in June 2026 to coordinate responses to piracy and other maritime threats.

Its commander, Commodore Mohammad Shettima, said the force would complement existing regional arrangements by “providing rapid, kinetic, and 24/7 surveillance capabilities”, according to the Institute for Security Studies.

The initiative builds on the 2013 Yaoundé Code of Conduct, although funding shortages, limited personnel and overlapping responsibilities remain obstacles. Devermont and Posner cautioned that policy improvements could be reversed without sustained institutional support.

The researchers also warned that deep-seated corruption, pipeline vandalism by militant groups and community tensions over oil pollution continued to undermine investment. Nigeria’s Niger Delta remains vulnerable to infrastructure sabotage and insecurity, while resource nationalism and disputes over petroleum contracts have complicated investment decisions elsewhere in West Africa.

Nigeria’s licensing history illustrates the gap between attracting investors and developing resources. Earlier bidding rounds left numerous blocks undeveloped, with regulators citing financing shortfalls, technical limitations and disputes between partners. The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has since tightened financial and technical screening.

See IntelliNews: Nigeria reviews oil block screening after years of stalled development.

“We have set a very attractive fiscal framework for investors. The entire environment is a lot more secure,” NUPRC chief executive Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan said at ADIPEC in Abu Dhabi on November 2, announcing that Nigeria would open the portal for its next licensing round, covering 40 blocks, on November 20.

Carnegie urges renewed US engagement

Competition from China presents another challenge for US investors. Chinese companies have expanded their involvement in African energy financing, infrastructure and engineering, particularly in Angola and Nigeria. Meanwhile, tightening emissions standards and uncertainty over long-term oil demand are increasing the commercial risks associated with new hydrocarbon developments.

Devermont and Posner urged Washington to deploy more diplomats to support US companies in the region. They also called on the US International Development Finance Corporation to use its expanded mandate and budget to offer the kind of financial and insurance products in Africa that it deploys in the Indo-Pacific, helping to reduce the risks of investment.

The researchers also called for closer cooperation with African governments on regulatory harmonisation, maritime security and investment conditions, arguing that sustained diplomatic engagement would be necessary to translate renewed US interest into longer-term commercial partnerships.