Greek tankers halve Russian oil cargoes as Gulf freight boom lures ships away

Greek shipowners more than halved their Russian crude cargoes in October to a two-year low, lured by booming Gulf freight and deterred by Black Sea attacks, Kommersant reported on November 10.

Greek-operated tankers carried 8.3mn barrels of Russian oil in October, the least since December 2024, according to S&P Global Commodities at Sea (CAS) and Maritime Intelligence Risk Suite (MIRS) data cited by the paper. Four Greek Aframax tankers of 100,000 deadweight tonnes and four Suezmax tankers of 135,000 tonnes left Russian routes as global freight rates neared record highs, driven by demand for bigger ships to move crude east of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's chokepoints, and by war-risk premiums from the US-Iran conflict. Only one Greek-operated tanker carried Russian oil in the Black Sea during the month.

Greece is the largest shipowning nation in the EU and the G7, so its retreat shrinks the slice of Russian oil that moves under Western price-cap rules and hands more of it to the shadow fleet. Athens and Valletta blocked a full EU ban on shipping Russian oil in August to protect their owners' business; freight rates in the Gulf have now done some of what sanctions policy did not.

G7-linked tankers carried 906,000 barrels a day (b/d) of Russian crude in October, 24.2% of all seaborne exports and the lowest share in seven months, down from 1.2mn b/d, or 29.2%, in September. Western companies may ship Russian oil to third countries only if it is sold below the price cap, which the EU has set at $44.1 a barrel. Ships with no G7 link carried 2.8mn b/d, mostly shadow fleet tankers, according to CAS. Vessels from Hong Kong-based owners moved 27.7mn barrels, Russian owners 22.5mn barrels and companies from the UAE 15.6mn barrels.

Russian routes pay owners less. Earnings on voyages from the Baltic to India ran $46,300 a day below the global Suezmax index in October, double the gap in September. Aframax cargoes from the Baltic to western India were fixed at $19mn-$21mn a voyage in early November, down from $23mn, and Suezmax voyages fell from $27mn to $23mn, Reuters reported, citing sources.

Black Sea loadings carry an extra cost. The additional war-risk premium on oil exports from the Black Sea reached $5/b by November 6, the highest since Platts began tracking it in October 2022, and hull war-risk premiums in the region have climbed to 20% of a vessel's value as the drone war moves to crippling ports and the ships that serve them.

Russia's total seaborne crude exports fell 9% month on month and 10% year on year to 3.7mn b/d in October, the lowest since April, according to CAS. That is still above the annual averages of 3.25mn-3.5mn b/d for 2022-2025 recorded by the International Energy Agency. A market source told the paper that Black Sea attacks may have played the decisive role in the monthly fall, alongside Britain's wider sanctions on shadow fleet tankers in October and inspections of ships in international waters by EU states, which have made it harder to sail under borrowed flags. Exports remain high partly because Russia has shifted from refined products to crude under its diesel export ban.

Fewer willing ships cost Moscow money at the loading port. The Urals discount to Brent at the Baltic ports widened to $25.3/b by mid-October from $22.6/b in September, according to Argus, and analysts put the gap down to freight costs and Black Sea risk. Freight is also eating into demand: Indian refiners have cut purchases of Russian crude as shipping costs erase its price advantage over discounted Gulf grades.

Russia's Price Index Centre recorded a far smaller fall, of about 2% in seaborne crude loadings in October, as a 33% rise in shipments from the northern ports offset part of the drop in the west. The exodus of Western owners may be temporary, the centre said, since Suezmax tonnage outstripped demand on some north-west European routes and Aframax capacity was in surplus in the Mediterranean in early November. It has seen no sign of market participants running into trouble because the Greek tankers have gone.