African fuel importers face tighter Asian supply as China halts October exports, Brent tops $100

African fuel importers face tighter supply after Chinese refiners suspended oil product exports for October and Brent crude rose back above $100 a barrel, Reuters reported on October 1, citing four people briefed on the matter.

China began a week-long holiday on October 1 without clearing its major refiners to ship fuel anywhere other than Hong Kong and Macau this month, the sources said. State oil company PetroChina cancelled several gasoline and jet fuel cargoes planned for October. Beijing has made exports conditional on domestic stocks returning to pre-war levels, and it is not clear whether shipments will resume when the holiday ends on October 7.

China restricted fuel exports in March after the Iran war disrupted crude supplies from the Middle East, then eased the curbs in July and has since managed shipments month by month. Its refiners loaded about 1.4mn tonnes of diesel and at least 2mn tonnes of jet fuel for export in September, according to trade estimates cited by Reuters.

"International markets are an afterthought," Michal Meidan, head of China energy research at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, is quoted as saying, adding that exports would stay limited unless domestic stocks were adequate. Price spreads for Asian diesel swaps between October and November rose to a two-week high on expectations that Chinese supply would be absent, according to Reuters.

Africa has leaned on Asian supply since Middle Eastern shipments fell. Asian exporters, including India, were set to ship 1.8mn to 2mn tonnes of diesel to Africa in August, the most in at least four and a half years, while Middle Eastern shipments fell to between 600,000 and 800,000 tonnes, the lowest in almost nine years, Reuters reported on August 31, citing Kpler, Vortexa and LSEG data. The Middle East supplied about half of Africa's diesel imports in 2025, according to Kpler.

East and southern African importers have changed suppliers most. India has replaced the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia as Kenya's source of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. South Africa, where refinery closures have increased dependence on imports, has turned to the United States for cargoes.

How much Chinese fuel reaches Africa directly is not broken out in the published trade data. The effect is more likely to be indirect. With Chinese cargoes absent, buyers elsewhere in Asia will compete for the Indian and other barrels that African importers now depend on.

Pump prices are already rising. Zambia raised petrol and diesel prices by about 24% on October 1, with its Energy Regulation Board citing higher international prices, a weaker kwacha and the return of excise duty.

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